For the EUR traders, a heads up to flash euro area PMIs due 23 August 2018

This via Nomura:

  • We expect the euro area composite PMI for August to decrease to 54.1 from 54.3 in July. At the sector level, we expect the regional manufacturing PMI to dip to 54.9 from 55.1 and the services PMI to drop to 54.0 from 54.2. Concerns about the escalation in the world trade dispute should have a negative impact on manufacturing activity. On top of that, the Turkish crisis should also hurt sentiment, given that the exposure of some European banks to Turkish assets is large. Our forecast for August's flash PMI reading would be consistent with euro area GDP growth of around 0.4% q-o-q in Q3 2018.

RBC:

  • The recent upgrade of euro area Q2 growth to 0.4% q/q from the initial 'flash' estimate of 0.3% put a more positive slant on H1 euro area growth. That said, growth in the first half of the year is still below both what was expected at the turn of the year and what the PMIs were pointing to. From the country level data, much of that first half weakness appears concentrated in France, where a combination of poor weather and strikes weighed on activity. As the economy pulls clear of those disruptions, it should be better positioned to contribute to aggregate euro area growth in H2 2018 and we continue to see growth of 0.5% in the remaining quarters of the year. However, the August PMIs will be an early test of that call. They have stabilized of late after sharp falls in the early part of the year, and we look for that to continue this month, with the services PMI to show no change at 54.2 and the manufacturing PMI to tick down slightly to 54.9

Barclays:

  • flash August PMIs will be key to watch, notably on the manufacturing front. We look for a modest uptick in both sectors, consistent with euro area PMI composite output at 54.7

And, more Barclays:

  • In the euro area, we expect Aug. euro area flash manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and composite PMI to edge up to 55.5 (Thu.; cons./last: 55.1), 54.5 (cons.: 54.4; last: 54.2) and 54.7 (cons.: 54.4; last: 54.3), respectively.

Daiwa:

  • The key euro area data focus, meanwhile, will be economic sentiment surveys for August, with the flash PMIs and European Commission consumer confidence indicator due on Thursday. In particular, having fallen back in July, the headline euro area composite PMI is expected to move sideways in August at 54.3, matching the second-lowest reading since 2016. In addition, the consumer confidence indicator is forecast to slip back slightly to a ten-month low of -0.7. Thursday will also bring the latest French INSEE business sentiment survey.