- Russian economic growth has resumed – First Deputy PM Shuvalov
- Russian July GDP +0.5% m/m, -9.3% y/y vs -revised -10.1% in June
- Shanghai share index up 1.1%, third straight day of gains
- “The risk of double-dip recession is rising “- Nouriel Roubini in FT
- “No cause for celebrations across Europe just yet” - Anatole Kaletsky in The Times
- China’s economy doing better, but still not stable. Will stick to current macroeconomic policies – Premier Wen
- Euro zone June industrial new orders +3.1% m/m, -25.1% y/y, stronger than median forecasts of +1.6%, -28.6% respectively
USD, JPY very marginally firmer as a slight note of caution enters the market.
Articles by Nouriel Roubini in the FT and Anatole Kaletsky in The Times (see above) have been duly noted and added a slight note of caution to the markets. Harvard’s Feldstein was also on reuters tv reiterating his warning that the US economy may experience double-dip contraction. Cautious comments from China’s Wen were pretty much a reiteration of what we’ve heard a number of times recently.
EUR/USD having started around 1.4335 came under heavy pressure reaching a session low 1.4282 before recovering back to 1.4305 at writing. A UK clearer and large French bank were notable sellers of EUR/USD early, along with that perennial favourite China.
Sources noted buy orders lined up just ahead of 1.4275 technical support and they were enough to block the downside. The release of better than expected euro zone June industrial new orders (see above) helped provide much-needed support.
Talk of stops gathering just below 1.4275 support.
EUR/JPY down at 135.65 from an early 135.90.
Cable hit early. Fell sharply, from around 1.6520 to session low 1.6441 with stops just below 1.6500 and 1.6470 accelerating the move lower. We’ve subsequently seen a decent rally back up to 1.6505, helped by the better than expected euro zone data.
USD/JPY at 94.85 pretty much unchanged. A fledgling rally failed to hold ground above 95.00, topping out at 95.06. Ongoing talk of Japanese exporter sell interest layered at 95.00 up through 96.00 is going to make accelerated gains tough sledding, one w0uld think.
