We will get an update on Trump's health later
I'm frustrated by how many reports I see citing Trump's health as the major driver for market moves today. I'm prepared to be humbled but I just don't see it that way. If there's a 'risk off' move on Trump staying in the hospital another day (expect an announcement later), then I'm a buyer of that dip.
All cross-market signals point to rising odds of a +$1.5T stimulus package as the market driver. Pelosi and Mnuchin talked today and will speak again tomorrow. All signs point to progress and the market is behaving exactly as if the odds of stimulus are rising.
- 10-year Treasury yields 5 bps higher to 1.75% (highest since Aug)
- Gold up $16
- WTI crude up 6% (also weather related but stimulus a factor)
- S&P 500 up 1.4% but led by value and small caps (Russell 2000 up 2.15%)
- Mexican peso up 1.1%
I feel like I'm in crazy-land on the stimulus. The world is watching to see if Trump sneezes and there's $1.5T-$2.2T in stimulus in play. Trump is eventually going to get better but this money would be a boon for consumers and businesses.
