Highlights of the minutes of the June 13-14 FOMC meetings

  • The Fed hiked rates 25 bps on June 14
  • Several policymakers saw recent increase in import prices as consistent with inflation trend in medium term
  • Several were concerned inflation softness might persist due to limited pass-through from resource utilization
  • Almost all support June hike
  • Most blamed soft prices on 'idiosyncratic factors'
  • A few officials saw low volatility stoking risks to stability
  • A few saw equity prices as high on standard metrics
  • Several officials back start of balance sheet announcement in a couple months, others saw benefits in deferring until later in 2017
  • Full text of the minutes

The lack of a clear signal on balance sheet action hurt the US dollar initially but it's balanced by the continued belief that higher inflation is coming.

Several preferred to announce a start to the process within a couple of months," the minutes said. "Some others emphasized that deferring the decision until later in the year would permit additional time to assess the outlook for economic activity and inflation."

There was lots of talk about letting employment run above 'full employment' for a sustained period with officials divided.

The general theme was a lack of consensus. It's tough to read a signal from that.