Forex news for Asia trading Monday 1 April 2019
Monday got off to a very early start (on Sunday!) with the much-watched official PMIs released in China:
- China official PMIs (March): Manufacturing 50.5 (vs. expected 49.6), Services 54.8 (54.0)
- China PMIs showed improvement in a weekend data release - recap ICYMI
The manufacturing result was a big, big beat, well-surpassing analyst expectations and jumping back into expansion for the first time in four months. I posted at the time the result would be a positive input come Monday opening and this was indeed the case (more to come on moves below).
The data of focus on Monday was once again on a Chinese PMI, this time the private survey Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI:
Another improvement, and another solid one indeed.
PMIs elsewhere, in Japan and South Korea also improved, but remained in contraction. ASEAN as a whole posted improvement and expansion:
- China, Japan, ASEAN March manufacturing PMIs all improve. South Korea though...
- Not just Japan, China PMIs improving - data today shows the bounce is more widespread
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (March, Nikkei / Markit 'final' ): 49.2 (Preliminary was 48.9)
Australian PMIs remained in expansion also:
- Australia manufacturing PMI March 2019: 51.0 (prior 54.0)
- Australia - CBA / Markit Manufacturing PMI for March (final): 52.0 (prelim was 52.0)
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Other headlines:
- Morgan Stanley now expect no Fed rate hikes in 2019
- Goldman Sachs raises its iron ore price forecast
- Explainer - Breaking the deadlock over Brexit: Is Britain heading for a general election?
- Onshore China bonds enter the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index today
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7193 (vs. yesterday at 6.7335)
- New Zealand Treasury says March quarter indicators mixed
- Goldman Sachs looks for gold to trade (grind) higher - forecasts
- Australia business conditions 7 (prior 4) and confidence 0 (prior 2)
- Australia monthly inflation guide, from Melbourne Institute: 0.4% m/m (prior 0.1%)
- Bank of Japan Q1 Tankan economy survey - manufacturing misses
- UK constitutional change will allow May to be PM for life (other April 1 headlines welcomed)
- Where to for the NZD? Updated outlooks from Westpac.
- Australia Core Logic house prices for March: -0.7 % m/m (prior -0.9%)
- BoA still bullish on the USD
- Weekend comments from ECB's Knot also on monetary policy
- Weekend comments from Italy's Treasury Minister - can’t afford fiscal expansion
- China (Sunday statement) - to continue to suspend additional tariffs on US vehicles
- Weekend comments from ECB's Knot - expects euro zone economy to improve in H2 2019
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 1 April 2019
- EU's Juncker - EU has been patient with UK over Brexit, but patience running out
- Monday morning forex opening price indications - 1 April 2019
- UK Times report May's government faces 'total collapse' over Brexit
- UK parliament could have a runoff vote as they seek consensus on Brexit
- Which global equity markets performed the best in Q1?
- Video: Brexit, the Canadian debt myth and the pair to watch right now
Apart from the PMIs there was plenty of other data today, most notably a weaker BOJ Tankan report for Q1. Over the weekend we got the usual barrage of Brexit headlines.
Opening moves here early in Asia reflected the better official China PMI out on Sunday. Yen weakened, AUD, NZD strengthened. Both AUD and NZD had a retrace but have since extended their gains.
EUR and GBP have remained more subdued. The CHF has weakened a touch. Regional equites here have gained, coming off a decent Friday in the US and those PMIs.
Still to come:
