Forex news for Asia trading Friday 1 March 2019
- Goldman Sachs (and others) on MSCI's huge boost to China stock representation in indexes
- “Lending Club of China”, Dianrong, said to be chopping around 2000 jobs
- China Caixin / Markit manufacturing PMI for February: 49.9 (expected 48.5)
- Japan's MUFG said to be close to buying DVB's aviation finance arm
- Fed's Powell says economy in good place, Fed patient and watching risks
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.6957 (vs. yesterday at 6.6901)
- South Korea's fin min says result of Hanoi summit could increase market volatility
- CAD politics - PM Trudeau to reshuffle Cabinet
- BoA/ML says the RBA is likely to remain patient
- Japan Nikkei / Markit Manufacturing PMI(final, February): 48.9 (prelim was 48.5)
- Brexit - More on US aims in negotiations with the UK on trade
- Fed's Mester speech - no remarks on her economic outlook nor monetary policy
- More on MSCI to increase weighting of Chinese stocks
- Japan Capital Spending y/y for Q4 2018: 5.7% y/y (expected 4.5%)
- Japan January unemployment rate: 2.5% (expected 2.4%)
- Japan, Tokyo area CPI (February): Headline CPI 0.6% y/y (expected 0.4%)
- Goldman Sachs like iron ore prices higher in the short term
- Australia CoreLogic house prices(February): -0.9% m/m (prior -1.2%)
- NZD up a tickle - conflicting data earlier but building consents have the upper hand
- Tesla's Musk says he does not expect Tesla to be profitable in Q1
- MSCI to quadruple the contribution of mainland Chinese companies’ to its benchmarks
- US Treasury wants to negotiate fair, reciprocal trade with UK
- Australia manufacturing PMI (CBA /Markit, February final): 52.9 (prelim was 53.1)
- Trade ideas thread - Friday 1 March 2019
- New Zealand terms of trade for Q4 2018: -3.0% q/q (expected -1.0%)
- New Zealand Building Permits for January: +16.5% m/m (prior +5.1%)
- White House Hassett says expects 3% US economic growth
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 54.0 (prior 52.5)
USD/JPY traded higher to above 111.70 during the session. With other currencies little net changed against the USD this saw yen crosses higher alongside.
The data calendar was packed, with the most focus on the private survey China PMI, Caixin / Markit manufacturing PMI for February. This came in at 49.9 for a solid beat, although still in contraction. The result contrasted with yesterday's official PMI that slid deeper into contraction. I should add the two are quite different surveys, the official has a great concentration of larger firms such as SOEs while Caixin has more small firms. January and February data should be taken with a grain of salt due to potential lunar new year distortions.
AUD/USD had a small pop on this data point, to above 0.7105 before dripping lower for a fresh session low in the following hours under 0.7090.
NZD/USD is little changed on the session. Two-way data on the currency early (good building permits, poor terms of trade, see bullets above) was net viewed positive (at least by me).
EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD are all very little changed on the session vs. the USD.
Still to come:
