Forex news from the European morning session - 24 March 2021
Headlines:
- Merkel officially retracts Easter lockdown
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 19 March -2.5% vs -2.2% prior
- RBA's Debelle: We will not raise cash rate until inflation is sustainably back in 2-3% range
- UK March preliminary services PMI 56.8 vs 51.0 expected
- US futures help to feed some calmer tones into the market
- Eurozone March preliminary services PMI 48.8 vs 46.0 expected
- BOJ purchases ¥70.1 billion worth of ETFs today
- Germany March preliminary manufacturing PMI 66.6 vs 60.5 expected
- France March preliminary services PMI 47.8 vs 45.5 expected
- UK February CPI +0.4% vs +0.8% y/y expected
- Germany reports 15,813 new coronavirus cases, 248 deaths in latest update today
Markets:
- CAD leads, GBP lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
- US 10-year yields flat at 1.62%
- Gold up 0.2% to $1,730.05
- WTI up 2.4% to $59.15
- Bitcoin up 3.5% to $56,362
The session started off with a whiff of yesterday's risk aversion, as the dour mood in Asia carried over with the dollar and yen keeping slightly firmer across the board.
But more positive surprises in euro area PMI readings helped to soften the blow, with US futures turning higher and dragging risk sentiment up a little on the day.
Oil also stabilised after yesterday's plunge, bouncing back above $59 ahead of North American trading and that is keeping the peace and underpinning the loonie as well.
The dollar stretched gains initially with EUR/USD falling to fresh four-month lows from 1.1840 to 1.1812 before paring some of that drop to 1.1820-30 levels.
GBP/USD also fell to fresh lows below 1.3700 and is still keeping lower overall but is sticking closer to the figure level for the time being.
The dollar advance also saw AUD/USD fall below its 100-day moving average to test waters below 0.7600 before climbing back up to near flat levels.
Meanwhile, NZD/USD also softened below 0.7000 to 0.6967 before climbing back closer to the figure level as risk tones improve a little on the session.
Elsewhere, Treasuries kept little changed overall as market participants continue to circle around for more clues after yesterday's more defensive undertaking.
But dollar strength is one to keep an eye out for as the greenback starts to stretch the limits against key technical levels across multiple charts this week:
- A break below 0.7000 spells more danger for NZD/USD
- EUR/USD falls to fresh four-month lows as the dollar stays in the driver's seat
- AUD/USD challenges key support as sellers search for more downside momentum
- GBP/USD sellers look poised to keep the downside push going for now
- Dollar stands resolute in challenging the consensus, is the tide starting to shift?
