European trading session - June 25
- ECB's Lagarde: Outlook is now balanced
- Trading tip: Take your losses
- Trading Tip: The power of anticipation
- EURUSD capped by large option expiry at 1.1950-1.1960
- Don't trade on another person's conviction
- EM markets bonds first outflow in 12 weeks
- Nok vs Sek: Nok wins?
- German health official Wieler says Delta is spreading fast
- Learning point: Keep a trading journal
- Eurozone May M3 money supply 8.4% vs 8.5% y/y expected
- European stocks gain attention
- Note of caution from Israel as they postpone normalcy
- European equities open higher as expected
- Risk is positive across markets
Other markets
- FTSE +0.13%
- Euro Stoxx -0.14%
- Italian FTSE +0.13%
- Dax -0.13%
- CAC -0.10%
- Gold - +0.55%
GBP still weak after yesterday's BoE disappointment and NZD strong on the decent trade balance and employment data Eamonn reported on earlier.
The market opened with gousto as risk on tones were felt across markets on President Biden's planned infrastructure plan. Equity futures were up, oil, copper, Iron ore broadly supported, yields a tad flat, but AUD, NZ, & CAD higher with a weaker USD, JPY, and CHF. What's there to worry about with so much support still around and the Fed's hike way out in the distance around 2023.
US oil remains a buy on the dips even as OPEC+ sources see 500Kbpd increase in production next week. Rising demand for 2H2021, low inventories, political aversion to oil investment, and increasing air travel have led to some calling for oil at $100 by next year. The ideal area for medium term dip buying is around $68 where stops can be placed tightly up against a descending trend line.
A large option at 1.1950 capped the EURUSD pair and I was anticipating sellers into the US PCE data release at the start of the US Session.
A large option expiry around 111.00 also contained prices on the USDJPY, so keep an eye on both of these levels for after the PCE data release for some intra day jobbing.
News from Israel that normalcy is postponed was concerning. It is due to the rise of the Delta variant. That, alongside news that there is some evidence around longer term brain impact, is a cause for pause on unchecked enthusiasm for the global vaccination recovery. There are like to be some hiccups along the way is the message from Israel, sadly.
German business confidence came in very strongly and this release confirms the strong PPI sentiment from Germany yesterday. Christine Lagarde was on the wires, but the eurusd dropped a little on the news that easy monetary policy continuing.
All eyes on the US session for PCE data and more Fed speak in what has been a bumper week for Fed speakers over all. Justin will rejoin on Monday, so I will sign off and say farewell for now. Take care and have a great weekend. I just know that something good is going to happen...seamless intro to the wonderful Kate Bush featured by the Utah Saints
