Forex news for NY trading on February 12, 2019

In other markets:

  • Spot gold rose $2.64 or 0.20% at $1310.81
  • WTI crude oil futures rose $.94 or 1.79% $53.35 (see technicals here)
  • Bitcoin fell $-15 to $3576.62 on Coinbase

In the stock markets in the US today, major indices moved sharply higher on the back of hopes for no government shutdown (up to Pres. Trump) and further hopes that China/US trade talks which will ramp up as the week comes to an end, will yield positive results worthy of a deal (or at least a delay of the increased tariffs at the start of March). The S&P closed just above its 200 day MA at 2743.35. That is the first close above since early December. The Dow snapped a 4-day losing streak. The Nasdaq rose by nearly 1.5%.

In Europe, apart from the UK FTSE, other indices added to their solid gains from Monday's trading.

The final ranges of % changes show solid gains with the US markets leading the way.

US and European major indices closed higher with the US indices leading the way.

Fed's Powell did speak today and he is keeping the story that the Fed is on hold until further notice. More specifically, he commented that:

  • Unemployment is close to a 50-year low (a fact)
  • Many groups are not experiencing prosperity yet (cited rural areas)
  • The economy is good (that is obvious)
  • It takes quite awhile for rate moves to affect the market (this explains the pause from the Fed)
  • Does not feel probability of recession is at all elevated (Goldilocks sentiment).

On the economic calendar today, the JOLTs job openinngs continued to support a strong jobs market. Job Openings came in at 7335K which was much higher than the 6846K estimate and represented a new cycle high in job openings. The hiring boom in the US is real and the job openings shows it.

JOLT job openings reach a new cycle high

What were the trends in the forex market today?

At the start of the NY session the AUD and CAD were the strongest of the major pairs and the CHF was the weakest. At the end of the day the CAD edged out the AUD as the strongest, while the CHF remained the weakest. The USD got weaker marginally in the NY session despite the better JOLT data today, with the declines vs the EUR, CAD and AUD all showing greenback falls of 0.47%.

The CAD was the strongest, while the CHF was the weakest in trading today.

Technically speaking:

  • The EURUSD took a 37 pip trading range at the start of the day and extended it to 82 pips with a move higher. That run took the price above a trend line and back above the old 2019 low from January 24 at 1.1288 area. Sellers eventually turned to buyers above the levels and the pair ultimately broke above the 100 hour MA at 1.13218 to a high at 1.1336. The 100 hour MA will be a barometer for the buyers and sellers in the new day.
  • The GBPUSD traded above and below the 100 day MA and 200 hour MA at 1.2890 area with a high at 1.29088. If the pair is to continue its corrective move higher, staying above the 100 day MA will be eyed, followed by a break back above the 100 hour MA at 1.29134 currently. The price has not closed above the 100 hour MA since January 31.
  • The RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR (official cash rate) unchanged today. The NZDUSD traded quietly between the 100 day MA below at 0.6720 and the 200 day MA above at 0.6751. The expectation is for the RBNZ to extend the next move into 2021. A shove one way or the other will likely use those levels as guides for the "market" sentiment.
  • The USDCAD tumbled lower (CAD was the strongest) and in the process fell below its 100 hour MA at 1.3275 currently. The lows did find a reason to stall against the Feb 7 and Feb 8 lows and the 38.2% of the move up from the Feb 1 low at 1.3128-32 area. That area is a key barometer for the new day. So far, buyers are trying to nibble there. However, on a break and subsequent move below the 100 day MA at 1.3118 and the 200 hour MA at 1.3202, the selling should intensify.