Forex news for NY trading on December 19, 2019
- More record highs for the major indices
- UK government Brexit deal legislation through commons by January 9
- What do the voters think about Pres. Trump's impeachment?
- Crude oil extends to a new session high
- New lows for the USDJPY. Tests the swing low from last Friday's trade.
- European shares end the session with mixed results
- US treasury secretary Mnuchin: The US/China trade pack will be signed in January
- WSJ: Feds Bullard sees no reason to change rates in 2020
- US leading index for the month of November 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate
- US existing home sales for the month of November 5.35M vs 5.44M estimate
- Stanley Druckenmiller is wading into the global reflation trade in 2020
- Belgian December business sentiment -3.4 vs -3.9 prior
- ADP Canada November employment +30.9K vs -22.6K prior
- December Philly Fed +0.3 vs +8.0 expected
- US Q3 current account balance -$124.1B vs -$122.0B expected
- US initial jobless claims 234K versus 225K estimate
- Canada October wholesale trade sales -1.1% vs -0.4% expected
- The AUD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest
In other markets near the end of day:
- Spot gold up $3.33 or 0.23% at $1478.79. The precious metal has trendline resistance at $1482. The high price today reached $1481.76
- WTI crude oil futures are trading near the end of day at $61.22 up $0.29 or 0.48%. The high price extended to $61.47. The low fell to $60.79
The US stocks continued their record-breaking advance. Today all major indices closed at record levels and all closed near intraday record highs as well. We have not even reached the so-called Santa Clause rally days which traditionally are the last 5 trading days of the year (from December 24) and extending to the first 2 days of the new year.
Today, the NASDAQ composite index led the charge with a gain of 0.67%. The Dow Jones (+0.49%) and S&P index (+0.45%) also enjoyed decent games. European major indices have mixed results with the German and Spain indices declining marginally. The UK FTSE 100 was the biggest gainer at 0.44%.
The other reason trend is the fall in the pound. It now has fallen for 4 consecutive trading days after spiking higher on the UK election results.
During the 4 day decline, the price has move back below the low from last week at 1.3052. We currently trade at 1.3006. Today's low reached 1.29888. That low was right at the targeted 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.29884. A break below that 200 bar moving average would be more bearish for the pound in the new trading day. Stay above and there may be a correction higher on Friday.
The EURGBP has also seen weakness in the pound this week. Today, the price moved above its 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.85195 and corrected to (and slightly above) the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October high at 0.85495 (the high reached 0.8956. The price currently trades right around the 38.2% retracement level. That will be a bias defining level in the new trading day. The 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart below at 0.85195 will also be a level that if the price can stay above would be more bullish.
The USDJPY cracked below its 100 hour moving average around the 109.50 level and tumbled lower toward its 200 hour moving average at 109.172. The low price for the day reached 109.176. Holding above the 200 hour moving average – and stocks that marched higher - gave traders reason to by the dip. The price is currently trading at 109.33 the close. Traders will be watching the low from yesterday at 109.392. That was also a swing low going back to Monday's trade. If the pair is able to get above that level a retest of the 100 hour moving average at 109.483 would be in the cards. Staying below the 109.392 would keep today sellers more in control.
In other major currencies:
- The USDCHF moved to the its lowest level since August 26 and in the process cracked below the 0.9800 level. The low price reached 0.9770. The pair currently trades at 0.97823. In the new trading day move back above the 0.9800 will be eyed. Getting above could solicit more buying.
- The USDCAD move below the November and December lows yesterday at 1.31148. The price also closed below that level in yesterday's trade. Today, however, the downside price momentum slowed, and the price scraped back above the 1.31148 level. Having said that, the upside momentum was somewhat limited with the hi extending to 1.3137 before settling between 1.3116 and 1.3130 for the but the last 6 or so hours of trading. In the new day a move back below the 1.31148 level would be more bearish. A move above the 1.3130 could see more buying with the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.31465 as a topside target.
Wishing our friends in Asia a safe and happy weekend. Thank you for your support.
