Forex news for NY trading on May 2, 2010
- US stocks close lower but well off the lows
- Mnuchin tweets on the productivity gains
- US Congressional Budget Office sees deficit averaging 4.3% of GDP
- April 2019 non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers
- Crude oil futures settles at $61.81 after it bounces off 200 day MA at the lows
- US Chamber of Commerce officials says US-China are in 'endgame' of negotiations
- Bundesbank's Weidmann: German consumption showing initial signs of recovery
- Beyond Meat (BYND) comes to the markets rescue (or helps)
- Stephen Moore withdraws from the Fed process
- US mulls more aggressive enforcement of Iran sanctions
- European stocks are ending the session lower
- Chinese media reports that US trade talks may have hit an impasse - chatter
- BOE Carney: Business investment likely to fall for a little while longer
- Trump Fed pick Moore says he is still "All in" despite Senate pushback
- Gold falls to key support and sees some buying on test
- US March factory orders +1.9% vs +1.5% expected
- ISM New York business conditions 77.3 vs 66.7 expected
- US initial jobless claims 230K versus 215K estimate
- US Q1 preliminary nonfarm productivity +3.6% vs +2.2% expected
- The EUR is the strongest. The CHF is the weakest. The changes are minimal.
In other markets near the end of day:
- Spot gold is trading down $5.80 or -0.45% at $1271
- WTI crude oil futures are trading after the close down $-1.96 or -3.07% at $61.65. Technically, the contract based off its 200 day moving average at $60.98 earlier in the session and bounced
In the US stock market today, the major indices are ending lower, but well off their lows for the day, and near the middle of their high to low trading ranges. The indices were heading lower on chatter from China new sources that the US/China trade talks were at an impasse. However, the data today was not to shabby and a stellar IPO of Beyond Meat (up over 160% from the IPO price of $25), helped to take some of the sting out of the declines (and helped the indices recover).
In Europe, the German DAX ended the session and changed, but France's CAC, UK FTSE, Spain's Ibex and Italy's FTSE MIB all closed near session lows (see chart below).
In the US debt market, yields continued their post-Powell move higher. Yesterday, Powell characterized inflation is being transitory. That took out some of the expectations for a rate cut later in the year. The 2 to 10 year yield were up over 4 bps. The 30 year lagged at up 2.9 bps.
In Europe, the 10 year yields ended the session mixed with Germany, France, and UK higher, and Spain, Italy, Portugal marginally lowly lower.
It is the day before the US employment data release, and the session was indicative of traders more inclined to wait it out vs push too hard.
Nevertheless, the day is ending with the USD as the strongest of the majors while the AUD was the weakest (see cumulative changes rank in the chart below).
Unimpressive, however is the modest changes and the bunching of the currency rankings.
The rankings of strongest to weakest in the chart above, are determined by simply adding the % changes of the respective currencies vs each other. The strongest currency for the day, is the one with the largest positive cumulative number, and the weakest is the most negative cumulative number. The spread between the USD (at 1.07%) and the AUD (at -0.75%) is very narrow - relatively. That says the market had a bias, but that bias was not all that great. Traders are waiting for the jobs report.
Fundamental news today showed that jobless claims remained elevated at 230K versus 215K expected. This time of year can be tricky with Easter and Passover being at different times. As a result seasonals may not exactly line up.
In contrast to that we can report:
- New York ISM business conditions was better than expected
- US nonfarm productivity for the 1st quarter was much higher 3.6% versus 2.2% expected. Productivity gains are a low cost way to increase GDP
- Factory orders were also etter-than-expected
As a result, a dollar move higher today is not all that surprising.
So it's on to the new day and the US unemployment statistics in an effort to help the economic picture for the Fed, and the price action view for traders as well.
