Forex news for North American trading on Nov 2, 2020:
- Russia discusses option of delaying OPEC+ taper until Q2
- ISM October manufacturing index 59.3 vs 55.8 expected
- Markit US manufacturing PMI for October (F) 53.4 vs. 53.3 estimate
- US construction spending +0.3% vs. +1.0% estimate
- Two pollsters who got it right last time are seeing a different outcome in 2020
- France reports a record 52,518 new covid-19 cases
- Canada October Markit manufacturing PMI 55.5 vs 56.0 prior
- ECB's Mersch: Crisis measures are temporary, targeted and proportionate
Markets:
- Gold up $16 to $1895
- WTI crude oil up $1.27 to $37.06
- US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps to 0.85%
- S&P 500 up 40 points to 3310
- CAD leads, GBP lags
The calm before the US election wasn't so calm as oil bounced 10% intraday on a report about Russia talking with domestic producers about continuing cuts into January.
The rally in oil gave a big lift to the loonie. USD/CAD hit 1.3370 shortly after the Asian open then flatlined into European trade but it was all downhill from there in a steady slide to 1.3229 as oil climbed. Natural gas quietly continues to climb but was a bit softer today on warmer weather.
EUR/USD wasn't a big mover and finished nearly flat. Covid cases in Europe are undoubtedly bad but the pace of worsening has slowed and there's some optimism there mixed with US election flows and the start of the month. There's a small double bottom at 1.1620 on the intraday that's worth watching.
Price action in stock markets was lively but USD/JPY didnt track it. The pair chopped sideways without much movement.
In GBP, it was a clash of the headline titans as the lockdown competed with positive Brexit news. On the day, the fall of only a quarter-cent is the best the bulls could have hoped for. But with the 'bad' lockdown news out of the way, the setup is better now for bulls.
The antipodeans tracked a generally-positive risk trade with moderate gains. The chink in that armour was in bonds where Treasury yields fell.
