Forex news for New York trading on November 20, 2020:
- Canada September retail sales +1.1% m/m vs +0.2% expected
- McConnell: Expiring Fed funds should be put towards targeted covid relief
- Fed's George: Drop in oil-related revenues could cause some states to cut spending
- White House will push for stimulus deal to aid in Georgia runoffs - report
- Mnuchin: We need congress to re-appropriate these funds, we could do $500B of stimulus
- G20 draft communique: Reaffirm FX commitments made in March 2018
- Eurozone Nov advance consumer confidence -17.6 vs -18.0 expected
- Fed's Kaplan: Economic growth is probably stalling due to virus spike
- Fed's Evans: Emergency facilities have been very helpful
- ECB's Weidmann: Active role in climate policy could undermine our independence
- Johnson's spokesman: We have been clear there won't bea return to the austerity of the past
- Fitch downgrades South Africa to BB- from BB, outlook negative
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 231 vs 236 prior
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Yen longs back off
Markets:
- Gold up $4 to $1870
- US 10-year yields down 0.5 bps to 0.82%
- WTI crude oil up 41-cents to $42.15
- S&P 500 down 24 points to 3557
- NZD leads, CAD lags
The tone overnight was poor on the Fed-Treasury fight over emergency money, along with virus worries. But it improved in early trading in part because of a fresh White House push to re-appropriate that money towards stimulus, something McConnell highlighted. However it wasn't enough as worries weighed late in the day on fears of an economic slowdown.
Overall, the moves were orderly and risk-sensitive AUD and NZD shrugged them off to finish a strong week for both. The loonie gave up a bit of ground despite the strong retail sales report and gains in oil. A big reason was a new -- and harsh -- lockdown in Toronto. It's coupled though with some new spending measures.
Sterling was buoyed by several reports -- including a late-breaking one -- saying that negotiators are optimistic about a deal, though it may take another two weeks. Once upon a time, today was the deadline but that's the way it goes in Europe. Cable finished 30 pips higher in third week of gains.
The yen wasn't much for trading as it shopped close to 103.80. The main move in the euro came in the form of selling into the London fix and it never quite recovered.
Gold got a pop from the talk of fiscal stimulus and hit $1879 but gave much of it back including some selling into the close. Support at $1850 remains the major line in the sand.
