Forex news for North American trade on July 23, 2021:
- Markit July US services flash PMI 59.8 vs 64.8 expected
- Canada June prelim retail sales +4.4% vs -3.2% prior
- CFTC US dollar positioning switches to net long
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 387 vs 380 prior
- Weidman: Possible over-extension of ECBs low interest rate environment
- Israel covid study shows some reason for caution, some reason for optimism
Markets:
- Gold down $6 to $1800
- WTI crude oil up 13-cents to $72.04
- US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 1.2847%
- S&P 500 up 44 points to 4411
- NZD leads, JPY lags
The FX market looked like it might tilt towards risk aversion early in New York trade as 10 year Treasury yields rejected 1.31% again and drifted back to 1.28% but relentless buying in equities steadied the market and left G10 FX largely unchanged on the day.
The main move in currencies was in the yen, which slid across the board. That move largely took place in European trading and USD/JPY finished New York trade about where it started at 110.55, which was close to the highs of the day.
USD/CAD tried to make a move higher to through 1.2600 but it looks to be a flow-driven move that was slowly erased later in the day, with some help from better retail sales and energy prices.
The euro continues to trade in a narrow range -- 150 pips in the past three weeks. Some ECB talk did the rounds but no one thinks they're going to make any real moves on policy for ages so it didn't move the needle. As we count down the final minutes of trading, EUR/USD is flat on the day and didn't make much of an effort on either side.
Cable is fractionally lower on the day but will close comfortably above the March/April double bottom in a rejection of what looked like it could be a nasty breakdown at the start of the week. The pair has been helped by a surprisingly quick dip in UK covide cases, which are down nearly 20K from the peak eight days ago to 36K per day. That will be something to keep an eye on over the weekend.
Have a great weekend!
