Forex news for NY trading on March 4, 2019
- Up, down and up again. Stocks end lower but off lows
- GBPJPY checks lower trend line after 100 hour MA was broken
- US crude oil futures settle at $56.59
- Forex seasonals: A tailwind is blowing for AUD/USD
- China boosted gold holdings in January - IMF
- European major indices end the day mixed
- House Judiciary Committee asks for docs from 81 entities in probe of Trump
- USDCAD stretching into target area
- Gold nears the late-January lows as the selloff continues
- Bitcoin tests its 100 day MA on dip. Key barometer for buyers and sellers
- US December construction spending -0.6% vs +0.2% expected
- What we know so far about a US-China trade deal
- June OPEC meeting is likely to extend curbs through year-end - report
- The AUD is the strongest, while the EUR is the weakest as NA trader enter
- Highlights of the US economic calendar today (with an emphasis on 'light')
- Kevin Hassett says US-China deal may be finished some time soon
In other markets:
- Spot gold is Darren $6.80 or -0.53% at $1286.60
- WTI crude oil futures are trading up $.65 or 1.16% at $56.45
- Bitcoin on Coinbase fell by $80.18 to $3700. The digital currency got close to the February 27 lower at $3655. The load today reach $3671
In the European stock markets, the major indices were mixed. The France's CAC rose by 0.41%. Spain's Ibex and German DAX fell by -0.1%. In the US, the major indices ended lower on the day but recovered into the close to settle near the middle of the up and down trading range.
The Dow was the biggest loser, falling by -0.79%. The NASDAQ index fell by -0.23%.
In the US debt market, yields opened lower, rose into the black, but fell back down and ended down. The yield curve flattened marginally with the 2-10 year spread down -1.9 bps on the day. Below are the changes and ranges for the day.
In Europe, their benchmark 10 year yields also ended mostly lower. The one exception was Italy which ending up 0.5 bps.
The day in the forex market was void of any concrete news during the session. The only economic news came from the Construction spending which came in weaker at -0.6% vs +0.2% expected but it was for December. The calendar clicked into March last week.
Other than that, the forex market got some inspiration from the up and down stock market. THe USDJPY fell in the NY session as stocks fell (you can blame the falll in yields too I guess). The high in the NY session for the pair reached 111.98, while the low extended down to 111.63. That low stalled at a swing low from Friday's trading. A move below that level in the new trading day would solicit more selling momentum with the 100 day MA down at 111.414 (look for buyers to lean on the first test down there).
The EURUSD was initially on the back foot, falling toward the 1.1300 level (1.1308 was the low). However, after falling below swing lows from Feb 21 and Feb 22 at 1.1315 and 1.1317 respectively, the selling dried up and the price rebounded higher into the close. The NY session high reached was at 1.1345 early in the session and recovered to just short of that high at 1.1342. Overall, the pair was still down 0.20% on the day but it could have been worse at the session lows.
For the GBPUSD, the pair found sellers in the early London session against its 200 hour MA, and later found support lower at the 100 hour MA. That 100 hour MA was tested twice in the NY session - once in the morning and once in the afternoon. Each time buyers leaned against the level. The MA comes in at 1.3167 going into the new trading day, and the current price is not too far away at 1.3176. In the new day, that MA will be a barometer for the bulls and bears. Stay above gives the dip buyers hope. Move below and I get the feeling that the dip buyers will turn into sellers.
The USDCAD moved higher despite higher oil prices. Typically, the CAD will strengthen (lower USDCAD) when oil moves higher, but the hangover from last week's weak GDP is continuing to keep the CAD sellers (USDCAD buyers) in control. For the pair, the price did stall near resistance at the 1.3339 level. Swing highs from mid-February - and before that mid-January - came in at 1.1318-39. The high price today reached up to 1.1337, before sellers entered and pushed the price lower into the close (closed at 1.3304). Support in the new day comes in at the 38.2% of the move down from the Dec 31 high at 1.3295. If that holds, look for the rotation to and through the 1.1339 level in the new day. If the 1.3295 level is broken, a move back toward the 100 day MA cannot be ruled out. That MA was broken on Friday after the worse than expected GDP release.
Below are the % changes of the major currencies. The NZD was the strongest. The EUR was the weakest. The USD was mixed on the day.
