Forex news for North American trading on August 9, 2021
- US stocks close mixed. No records reached today.
- Fed's Rosengren: Fed should begin slowing stimulus efforts by fall
- US 10 year yield trades in the highest level since July 16
- CDC raises travel advisory for France and Israel to the highest level
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $66.48
- US to require all military members get vaccine by Sept 15
- More from Fed's Barkin: Expects high level of spending in economy for some time
- Richmond Fed president Barkin: Demand does not yet seem dented by Delta variant
- Senate Majority Leader Schumer: Infrastructure bill on path to pass Tuesday morning
- European equity close: Stoxx 600 hits a record
- Fed's Bostic: Could achieve 'substantial further progress' in another month or two
- Delta risks and jobs optimism are battling it out in markets
- NY Fed survey: Median one-year inflation expectations unchanged at 4.8% in July
- Fed's Bostic: US needs to be 'well beyond the crisis' before raising interest rates
- US June JOLTS job openings 10.073M vs 9.281M expected
- Bitcoin powers through the 200-day moving average
- Senate Democrats make push for clean energy incentives, immigration and free tuition
- JOLTS and Fed talk are on the economic calendar
- CAD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins
A trading day after the better than expected jobs report, Feds Bostic and Rosengren tilted more toward the early taper side. Fed's Barkin was a little less convincing.
Bostic said that the economy could reach "substantial further progress" in another month or two. Rosengren said the Fed "should begin slowing stimulus efforts by the fall". Barkin said that the Fed has made "substantial further progress" towards the taper benchmark on prices, but feels the focus should be on employment to population ratio. That ratio is lower than prepandemic levels (61.1% vs 58.4% currently), but he is still positive on the economy saying "he expects high level of spending for some time" and "demand does not yet seem dented by Delta variant".
Those more hawkish view are joined by Fed's Waller, Bullard, Kaplan and maybe a lesser extent Clarida. Fed's Brainard, Kashkari, tend to be more dovish, looking for more jobs recovery. Fed's Powell, also expressed less rush after the FOMC decision last week (but before the jobs report on Friday).
The dollar continued it's move to the upside today after Friday's surge after the jobs report. The greenback is the strongest of the major currencies. The CHF is ending as the weakest today. The USDCHF was the biggest mover (by far) with a change of +0.67%. The AUDUSD was the next largest mover at 0.33%.
Looking at the USDCHF chart below, the price moved above a downward sloping trend line near 0.9180 level, and then moved above the a swing area near 0.9200 (from 0.9199 to 0.92026). It currently trades just above that level at 0.9206 just before the close. The next upside target for the pair in the new trading day would be up near 0.9220 to 0.92222.
The AUDUSD is testing a swing area between 0.7327 and 0.73306 ahead if the July 28 low extreme at 0.73165.
In other markets:
- Spot gold is trading down $-33.60 or -1.91% at $1729. That is the lowest level since April last year.
- Spot silver is trading down $0.90 or -3.71% at $23.40.
- WTI crude oil futures are off the lows but still down $-1.18 or -1.73% at $66.80
- The price of bitcoin is trading up around $1845 and $45,703. Coinbase reports earnings tomorrow
In the US debt market today, yields continue to move higher with the 10 year yield up 3.7 basis points. The 30 year yield is up 4.0 basis. Tomorrow the U.S. Treasury starts the quarterly refunding with the sale of three year notes. That will be followed by the sale of 10 year notes on Wednesday and 30 year bonds on Thursday.
In the US stock market today, the NASDAQ index was the only major index higher. The Dow and S&P index both fell from record levels reached on Friday. Below is a summary of the changes highs and lows for the day.
