Goldman Sachs say they are no longer expecting a US China trade deal prior to the election in the US next year.

GS add an expected third rate cut from the Fed this year, in October of 25 bps.

GS cite:

  • growing trade policy risks
  • market expectations for much deeper rate cuts
  • possibility of a no-deal Brexit

September FOMC meeting

  • 75% chance of a 25bp cut
  • 15% chance of a 50bp cut
  • 10% chance of no cut

October

  • expects 50% chance of a 25bp cut,
  • 10% chance of a 50bp cut
  • 40% chance of no cut