Goldman Sachs yuan forecasts (cite escalating of China - US trade tensions):
- 3 months out is 7.2
- 6 months 7.2
- 12 month 7.1
- risk of further deprecation as China is reluctant to ease domestic policy further and stimulate economy
GS say there's a high probability US will enact the scheduled increases in tariffs on September and October 1st.
- US FX intervention isn't the base case but its option might gain more attention as trade tensions escalate
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (say a lower yuan is to assist in offsetting tariffs)
- 7.5 by end 2019 (from 7.3)
- risk of move to 7.66 if yuan depreciation is favoured policy tool
- China's hike of tariffs on US goods removes some of the pressure for yuan depreciation