GS project initial claims to 2.25 million
- In today's note we compile anecdotes from recent press reports and company announcements to estimate the magnitudes of the increase in layoffs and decline in consumer spending due to the virus.
- These data points offer an especially timely read on the slowdown in activity so far.
- State-level anecdotes point to an unprecedented surge in layoffs this week. These anecdotes suggest that the next jobless claims report covering the week of March 15-21 will show that initial claims rose to roughly 2% million, the largest increase in initial jobless claims and the highest level on record.
- Anecdotes from a wide range of sectors also suggest an unprecedented decline in revenues across many industries. Consumer spending on sports and entertainment, hotels, restaurants, and public transportation in particular have already dropped dramatically.
The previous read was 281,000, jump to over 2m is horrendous. And likely just the beginning, the mishandling of the crisis that began two months ago has made it much worse. The administration in the US was deriding the outbreak as a hoax, as fake news, even as some lined their pockets:
