The firm cuts its no-deal Brexit probability to just 10%
- No-deal Brexit outcome seen at 10% (previously 15%)
- No Brexit outcome seen at 35% (unchanged)
- Ratified/Delayed Brexit outcome seen at 55% (previously 50%)
That's a bit of a change to their assessment from two weeks ago here. Some comments from a note by the firm:
"We continue to see the most likely outcome of the current impasse as eventual ratification of the Prime Minister's Brexit deal, with a three-month extension of Article 50."
Also, the firm is recommending to keep betting on a higher pound despite the fact that the trade is starting to get crowded. Their view is that the pound will keep getting support as foreign investors who bought hedges since the June 2016 vote will have to slowly reduce their positions as risk of a no-deal outcome fades.
