Analysts at the firm revise up their no-deal Brexit probability
- No-deal Brexit 15% (up from 10% prev.)
- No Brexit 35% (down from 40% prev.)
- Delayed Brexit 50% (unchanged)
With the Cooper Amendment failing to pass yesterday and a softer non-binding amendment in the form of the Spelman Amendment passing instead, it is likely the government will still threaten the European Union with calls of a no-deal Brexit outcome as May seeks to head back to Brussels in an attempt to renegotiate.
European leaders and lawmakers have made clear that they won't be doing so, hence we're no closer to getting a deal between the two parties as the 29 March deadline draws closer.
