DoubleLine's Gundlach on CNBC
- Gundlach highlighted the correlation with German 10-year bunds and nominal GDP
- Recent economic data has not been as strong as three months ago, especially retail sales
- Inventories are holding up Q1 GDP
- It's hard to say inflation is rising. It isn't really there
- There are a lot of reasons to think inflation should be rising
- Our inflation model sees a rise to 2.6% y/y in July, followed by a moderation
- It's a bit disconcerting that the US dollar hasn't bounced after a big drop
- It's interesting that gold can't seem to get any momentum
- Gold, dollar and bonds are consolidating after big moves and will move together
- There's a connection to Bitcoin and the general move
- Bitcoin 'very clearly' leads risk assets
- We're going to have a negative year in the stock market, says he's net short in his macro fund (since December)
- For stocks to 'have a chance' you need 10-year below 2.63%, which I don't think will happen
- I don't have a lot of conviction on a break of 10-year yield above 3% or below 2.63%. I lean towards higher.
- 3.22% on the 30-year is the key level for bonds
- Bitcoin is the WorldCom of our era
Gundlach has been saying most of these things for awhile.
