Speaking during webinar

He adds:

  • IF core CPI goes about 2.25%, the a tire inflation narrative is going to change. It will be something of a breakout
  • Peak momentum in economy may be behind us
  • long-term dollar bearish, short-term bullish, would not be surprised see a 95 handle in the US dollar
  • We could very well see a recession in 2019; but don't expect it.
  • Looks for a break in gold but does not see a reason to have a position now. Would wait for a close above topside trend line or below the 200 day MA. This is a bullish chart until proven otherwise.
  • From a chart perspective had every reason for the dollar to rally and it did. The price bounced off the check back line and the old highs.
  • Still expect commodities to outperform in 2018.
  • Bond market is at critical junction. Even though of the opinion rates will break to the upside, but let the market tell us that. React to the move, don't anticipate the move.
  • The yield that really matters is 3.22%