I posted a preview (includes what is expected and priors) here
Note the data is due at 2330 GMT, 20 minutes prior to when we normally get Japanese data
Via Nomura:
- We expect the December all Japan core CPI (ex-fresh food) to rise 1.0% y-o-y, 0.1pp stronger than the November reading.
- We expect the December all-Japan core core CPI (all items ex energy and food, except alcoholic beverages) to rise 0.3%, up 0.2pp from November.
- We think prices of food and a broad range of consumer goods contributed to higher inflation.
- We expect the so-called BOJ version of the all-Japan core core CPI (all items ex energy and fresh food) to rise 0.5% y-o-y, a 0.2pp improvement from November.
- We forecast the January Tokyo core CPI to rise 0.8% y-o-y, unchanged from December.
- As the boost from energy prices weakens, we look for inflation to temporarily stall.
- We expect January Tokyo core core CPI to rise 0.3%, a 0.1pp improvement from December, and the BOJ version of January Tokyo core core CPI to rise 0.4%, unchanged from December.
Just from that note, a couple of explainers:
- Japan 'core' inflation is not the same as the core measure from, for example, the US. The Japan 'core-core' is closest to US core inflation
- The BOJ version of inflation Nomura refers to is pretty much exactly what it says - its the it's the BOJ's own measure of (core core) inflation and is issued separately from this data much later today.
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And, a quickie few comments via Dai-ichi Life - they are not looking for higher inflation today nor in the next few months
- We expect the core CPI index will stay around the same level in the following few months
- Oil prices and an annual wage negotiations in spring will be closely watched for the outlook for consumer information
