Very few were expecting this
If the exit polls are right, it's going to be a very bad day for Theresa May. She didn't need to call an election and trying to push her luck might mean the end of her leadership if not her career.
A minority is the worst-possible outcome. It leaves the government constantly in the lurch as the negotiate with the EU. It means more instability and it will translate into more frustration from voters.
The good news for GBP -- if there is any -- is that minority governments like to buy votes so deficit spending could be coming and that would boost short-term growth.
But let's talk about the next 24 hours.
Tomorrow is Friday and that's extra incentive for any GBP longs to head to the sidelines and lick their wounds. Technically, the election-call lows have broken and that puts my target straight on 1.2550, which was where cable was before May called the election.
And that would only be the start. This is a nightmare for May and it's a good reason to take medium/long term cable shorts down to the March lows, especially if US data starts to turn better. Another possibility (and a good trade) is EUR/GBP longs.
The only good news for May is that the exit poll isn't the official result. The Conservatives outperformed the exit poll at the last election so there's hope but it's white-knuckle time for sure.
A slice of good news from the exit poll is the disaster for the Scottish National Party. That's something I talked about in my video on seven things to watch for as the UK election results roll in. They may lose 20 seats and fall to 34 from 54.
Expect the first real results in 2 hours and much more in 4-6 hours.
Where do you think cable will be tomorrow if the exit polls are correct?
