Labour outperforms in a big way
For Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Here's the voting breakdown:
- Labour: 64.9% (+9.9)
- Con: 24.6% (+5.7)
- LDem: 4.9% (-1.4)
- UKIP: 4.0% (-10.9)
Our the Chris Hanretty model had
- Labour: 52%
- Con: 26%
- LDem: 7%
- UKIP: 13%
It's only one district but it meshes well with the exit poll, not the pre-election polls
This is bad news for the pound.
Update:
Houghton & Sunderland South:
- Lab: 59.6% (+4.4)
- Con: 29.6% (+11.2)
- UKIP: 5.7% (-15.8)
- LDem: 2.2% (+0.1)
Model:
- Lab: 52%
- Con: 27%
- UKIP: 17%
- LDem: 3%
So the UKIP vote absolutely collapsed but the market is misinterpreting this. Naturally the UKIP vote should got to the Conservatives but they only picked up a few ticks. Instead, Labour has outperformed.
The market is reading this the wrong way.
