The data from China is due at 0200GMT on Friday 16 April 2021
China Q1 2021 GDP:
expected +1.4% (SA), prior was +2.6%
expected +18.5% y/y, prior +6.5%
March data:
Industrial Production y/y
expected 18.0%
Industrial Production YTD to March y/y
expected 26.5%, prior was 35.1%
Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y
expected 26.0%, prior was 35.0%
Retail Sales y/y,
expected 28.0%
Retail Sales YTD y/y
expected 31.7%, prior was 33.8%
What to expect via Scotia:
- Q1 GDP is expected to strongly accelerate in year-over-year terms but mainly because the figure will compare to the 9.7% q/q non-annualized contraction during the first quarter of last year when the pandemic's effects struck with full force. Pay more heed to the quarter-over-quarter reading for 2021Q1 that is estimated to land around 1 ½% non-annualized.
- Other reports ... on industrial output and retail sales during March will need to control for a similar year-ago comparison distortion
