I like seasonals. I theory, they shouldn’t work but in theory lots of things in markets shouldn’t work and still do.
#1: Oil gushes in February
February is by far the best month for oil, averaging a whopping 6.4% gain over the past 10 years. Last year bucked the trend up oil has risen in 7 of the past 9 Februarys. This is also the start of an extended period of seasonal strength for oil that lasts through June.
WTI crude oil seasonal heatmap
Honorable mentions
- Feb is the third weakest month for the S&P 500, averaging a 0.5% decline over the last 10 years but that’s heavily skewed by an 11% loss in 2009. The index has gained a yearly average of 2.8% in the four years since.
- Feb is among the softer months for cable.
