The prior IMF forecasts were in October
- Sees 2022 GDP growth of 4.1%
- Forecasts 2020 contraction of 3.5% vs 4.4% in Oct
- Cites 'exceptional uncertainty' about the outlook due to renewed waves and variants
- Saw trade contract 9.6% in 2020. Sees rebound of 8.1% this year and 6.3% in 2022
- Sees US 2021 GDP growth of 5.1% vs 3.1% in Oct.
- Sees India growth of 11.5% vs 8.8% in Oct
- Sees 8.1% China growth vs 8.2% in Oct
- Eurozone +4.2% in 2021 vs +5.2% in Oct
- UK +4.5% in 2021 vs +5.9% in Oct
- Japan +3.1% in 2021 vs +2.3% in Oct
- Canada +3.6% in 2021 vs +5.2% in Oct
- Full report
This chart shows the damage from the pandemic on the growth trajectory:
The forecast says there are three key questions on how the outlook will evolve:
First, how will restrictions needed to curb transmission affect activity in the near term before vaccines begin delivering effective society-wide protection? Second, how will vaccine-rollout expectations and policy support affect activity? Third, how will financial conditions and commodity prices evolve?
Here's another way to see the growth debt from covid through 2022. It highlights the impressive rebound in the US; and that's before what's likely to be a year of aggressive stimulus.
