I had some snippets from the IMF earlier: More from the IMF on NZ - NZD is moderately overvalued
Where the dude said:
Nah, says NAB, its undervalued! ... This via eFX
Our rhetoric on the NZD has remained positive for some time now, since about the middle of last year. Global tailwinds for the NZD continue, with improving global growth momentum and activity data still surprising on the upside.
Our risk appetite index, a key component of our short-term NZD model, recently reached a 2½ year high. Add in a stronger commodity price dynamic and our fair value estimate has been tracking up for some time now and currently sits around the USD 0.74 mark.
Our projections suggest a flatter commodity price outlook over the rest of the year and risk appetite coming off the boil, leading to an eventual weaker NZD profile. If we're wrong and global economic momentum continues to surprise on the upside then last year's high of just under USD 0.75 would be threatened.
For now, the NZD is expected to consolidate around a USD 0.70-74 range. As sentiment for the USD improves later in the year and some of the heat is taken out of global growth momentum, commodity prices and risk appetite, then the path of least resistance is expected to be a softer NZD.
