Non Farm Payroll expected to add 206K. Hourly earnings +0.2% est.
Tomorrow the US employment report for March will be released. The estimate is for the Unemployment rated to remain at 4.9%, for 206K NFP jobs to be created and for the hourly earnings to recover from a -0.1% number last month with a 0.2% gain this month.
This month the market is without the actual numbers for the employment components from the monthly ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices. Both will be released after this month's jobs report (it is unusual for the employment report being released on the 1st calendar day of the month). The ADP private sector employment estimate (ex government) was released yesterday and it came in at 200K - not far from the private job gain estimate of 190K. Having said that, the variance between the two measures can be somewhat significant.
Job gains remain largely created in the Service sector. Goods producing jobs last month declined with Manufacturing jobs (-16K last month) still on its back.
The market will be paying attention to hourly earnings. Job growth can probably be as low as 170K and still be considered strongish. If hourly earnings come in less than 0.2% (after -0.1% last month), the market will not be impressed. Mining jobs (think oil producers) was also weak at -18K last month. Construction jobs at +19K saved the goods producing sector from being a total disaster.
Initial jobless claims were little changed (263K vs 261K for the 4-week MA) from last month but remains at low levels suggesting job growth remains good.
Below are the trends in some of the major employment components.
