The January jobs reports for Canada and the US will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT.

Tomorrow is unemployment day (or enjoyment day depending on how it goes).

Both the US and Canada will release their job statistics for the month of January at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. The expectations are for job gains. If in the US they are anything like the ADP, get ready for a stronger USD, higher rates and higher stocks (again). However, there is one caveat that traders will need to be aware of going into the data.

The expectations for the US data:

  • nonfarm payroll 165K estimate versus 145K last month
  • private sector payroll 155K estimate versus 139K last month
  • manufacturing tables are expected to fall by -2K versus -12K last month
  • unemployment rate 3.5% estimate versus 3.5% last month
  • average hourly earnings 0.3% estimate versus 0.1% last month
  • average hourly earnings year on year 3.0% versus 2.9% last month
  • average weekly hours 34.3 estimate versus 34.3 last month
  • labor force participation rate 63.2% versus 63.2% last month

The caveat that could cause more "unenjoyment" (versus enjoyment), will be the annual benchmark revisions. Reports from economists and analysts are that the 2019 job gains could be revised lower by up to -500k jobs. Depending on how that number comes out, may impact the price action in the markets.

If you trust the trends from the other employment measures:

  • ISM manufacturing employment index improved to 46.6 from 45.2 in December. The manufacturing index has been below the 50 level since July with a low of 45.2 in December.
  • ISM nonmanufacturing employment index fell to 53.1 from 54.8 in December. The level was the lowest since 51.7 in September
  • ADP private sector employment came in at 291K versus 157K estimate and 199K last month
  • The 4 week MA is lower this month (215K vs 230K last month).

For Canada, there estimates show:

  • net change in employment 17.5K estimate versus 27.3 K last month
  • full-time employment change came in at 33.9K last month
  • part-time employment change came in at -6.5K last month
  • hourly wage rate for permanent employees 3.6% estimate versus 3.8% last month
  • unemployment rate 5.7% estimate versus 5.6% last month
  • participation rate 65.6% estimate versus 65.5% last month

With the US data complicated by the annual benchmark revisions, it could cause a lot of volatility from the algos. Given the estimates for a pretty decent -500K decline, that could make the trading even more volatile. Be aware. It might make sense to sit this one out until the dust settles at least.