The final of this will be published next week (February 1), for now this preliminary PMI:

Comes in at

  • prior 52.6

'Key points':

  • Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI® falls to 50.0 in January (52.6 - December), ending longest expansionary run for over a decade.
  • Exports decline at strongest pace in two-and-a-half years
  • Production scaled back for first time since July 2016, while confidence lowest in over six years.

Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

  • "Preliminary PMI data for January bodes ill for Japan's manufacturing sector, indicating the end of a near two-and-a- half-year growth run as the index dropped to 50.0. The underlying picture will raise concern given renewed reductions were seen in new orders and output. Further signs that the downturn in the global trade cycle could yet worsen were also signalled, with new export orders falling at the sharpest rate since July 2016. The widely-anticipated rebound in Q4 should not distract from the bigger picture. Domestic economic weakness compounded with slowing global growth coincided with the lowest level of business confidence for over six years."