The Tertiary Industry Index for January, due at 0430GMT

  • expected +0.1%, prior -0.4%

The index is used as a proxy for domestic activity.

  • It excludes manufacturing, looking at service industries catering mainly to the local economy. Exports are pretty much excluded.
  • Looks at industry such as wholesale and retail trade, financial services, health care, real estate, leisure, utilities.

The most recent guide to domestic activity was the Economy Watchers survey for February. Its published by the Cabinet Office and surveys those in direct contact with consumers:

  • In February it came in at 48.6 vs 50.0 expected and 49.8 previously
  • So, not a positive for the index we expect today

But, on the other hand ... Japan Retail sales for January came in at +0.5% m/m

  • vs. an expected of 0.3% and prior of -1.6%
  • So, a good bounce and a beat - a positive for today's number

I'll go out on (not very much of a limb) and predict whatever we get it won't move the yen much :-D