House of Representatives
The latest whip count for the upcoming vote on Syria shows 105 members of the House against military action and 117 leaning toward no for a combined 222 votes. Only 217 negative votes are needed to thwart the motion.
What’s worse 186 representatives are undecided or haven’t spoken out, which means that some of those leaning against it will need to turn and all the undecideds will need to support the President.
Senate
The Senate is murkier with 52 undecideds. There are 23 members in favor of action but 25 against or leaning against it. To pass or fail, the resolution will need 50 votes.
The Verdict
Obama is a longshot at this point, especially in the House. It will be the biggest setback of his Presidency.
He can legally launch attacks without Congress but it would be unpopular. On the other hand, backing away completely would damage his personal credibility and the US. In either case, this is going to be a very low-level operation perhaps only be a token campaign.
I continue to believe that oil is overvalued and at $110.40 looks extremely vulnerable to a fall on a negative vote.
