Highlights of the March 2018 non-farm payrolls report
- Prior was 313K (was highest since July 2016)
- Unemployment rate 4.1% vs +4.0% expected
- Participation rate 62.9% vs 63.0% prior
- Underemployment rate 8.0% vs 8.2% prior
- Two month net revision -50K
- Private payrolls +102K vs 190K expected
- Prior private payrolls 287K (revised to +320)
Wages:
- Average hourly earnings 2.7% y/y vs 2.7% exp
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% m/m exp
- Prior avg hourly earnings 2.6% y/y
- Hours worked compared 34.5 to 34.5 expected
- Prior hours worked 34.5
The wage growth numbers are decent and I think that's going to be a bigger driver than the miss in jobs. In terms of the headline, around 100K jobs a month is what the FOMC is expecting so I don't think this will change their outlook.
Still, it's not like there is runaway wage growth. I don't think this changes the calculus of anything in markets at the moment.
From Mohammed El-Erian: "Takeaway from a March jobs report that met expectations for wage growth, undershot on monthly employment creation and somewhat disappointed on labor participation: Should serve to reduce markets concerns about an overheating economy that increases the risk of a policy mistake"
