Morgan Stanley say they’ve gone long at 1.3930 on a short term trade with a stop at 1.3830 and target of 1.4300. They see limited risk from here on with Ukraine but will remain a safe haven trade either way.
They’re also orders in to sell AUD/USD at 0.9180 with a stop at 0.9280 and PT of 0.8600. The Aussie is still vulnerable to Chinese developments, particularly the decline in the Chinese property sector, which they say is usually a leading indicator for AUD.
That’s some good risk reward and a break of 1.40 in EUR/USD could see them keeping the trade in profit but it will take a very decent move to take it to 1.43 and through a strong resistance points at 1.4170 & 1.4249
EUR/USD weekly chart 19 03 2014
As, for the Aussie trade, it goes against my strat so I’m happy
We’ve got resistance at the 200 dma at 0.9151 and then strong resistance at 0.9167 with the 50 fib of the Oct 2013 hi/lo at 0.9208. A break of that area and it’s very likely that they’ll see the trade stopped out.
AUD/USD daily chart 19 03 2014
As for the downside, it will take a decent break of 0.8888/8900 to bring the profit target into focus and even then there’s some fairly strong tech down there ahead of 0.8600.
EFX bring as the calls
