Preview of all the numbers that matter ahead of March 2018 non-farm payrolls employment report:

The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, April 6, 2018:

  • Median NFP estimate 185K (190k private)
  • February 313K
  • Highest estimate 255k
  • Lowest estimate 110k
  • Average estimate 187.6k
  • Standard deviation 30.5k
  • Unemployment rate exp 4.0% vs 4.1% prior
  • Prior participation rate 63.0%
  • Underemployment U6 prior 8.2%
  • Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 2.7% y/y vs 2.6% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior
  • Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior

Here's the December jobs story so far

  • ADP 241K vs 246K prior (210K expected)
  • ISM manufacturing employment 57.3 vs 59.7 prior
  • ISM non-manufacturing employment 56.6 vs 55.0 prior
  • Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 228.3K vs 224.8k prior
  • Claims during reference week 218K
  • Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 14.9 vs 15.1 prior
  • Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring +102.1K
  • Jan JOLTS 6312K vs 5667k prior

One of the consistently strengthening indicators of the US jobs market that you don't often hear about is the ratio of 'jobs plentiful vs jobs-hard-to-get' in the US consumer confidence survey. It's now +25.0 compared to -0.6 two years ago and -43.0 in 2011.

The labor market is strong but there is a stickiness on wages that's going to be very difficult to overcome. There just isn't any appetite to compete to attract workers with higher pay.

But at some point, you have to think that will happen. That's why the market is watching hourly earnings so closely. The February data was soft on that front and it hurt the US dollar despite a smashing headline. This could be payback time but it's tough to get an edge on wages in March.

What's certain is that little else besides the wages data matters. Expect 90% of the market reaction to focus on the m/m wage headline.

Note that Powell will be speaking later on Friday so that could help to minimize volatility in the aftermath of the report.

For more on non-farm payrolls, here's a preview from Barclays.