ANZ with analysis on the New Zealand inflation data out earlier:
Comments (in summary):
- These data captured a fair amount of lockdown-induced noise, dragging on quarterly inflation. That suggests Q3 will include a healthy dose of payback (but with underlying inflation continuing to decelerate).
- Looking through the noise, inflation and employment headwinds reinforce the need for further action from the RBNZ
- " the underlying pulse is weak"
- "The RBNZ has a momentous battle on its hands. Without further action or a significant change in the economic outlook, the risk of a persistent undershoot is likely to materialise."