RBNZ likes a surprise
The RBNZ's surprise rate cut last month by 50bps invited, as we expect on surprise rate cuts, immediate NZD sellers. For the rate meeting this week on September 25 the current probability for a 25bp srate cut is at 17.6% and zero probability is seen for another 50bps rate cut. The RBNZ will likely stay in 'wait and see mode', but any further concerns about global growth could push the RBNZ to move early as their Q2 GDP growth prints of 2.1% y/y and 0.5% q/q were the slowest pace of growth since 2013.
Definitely one rate meeting to keep a careful eye on.
