Q2 CPI data is due from New Zealand at 2245 GMT on Monday 15 July 2019
Tuesday local time IN NZ
The CPI data is once a quarter from NZ (like Australia)
- expected 0.6%, prior 0.1% for the q/q
- expected 1.7%, prior 1.5% for the y/y
What you may not be aware of is later on the same day, at 3pm NZ time (Tuesday 16 July at 0300GMT), we get another round of inflation data, the RBNZ's own measure of inflation. Its worth being aware of because the release can be a mover of the NZD.
The RBNZ's key measure of core inflation is 'the sectoral factor model'.
The most recent reading was 1.7% y/y, for the March 2019 quarter.
Preview via ASB:
- Courtesy of higher fuel prices, we expect overall consumer prices to rise 0.6% in the June quarter (+1.7% yoy), in line with the RBNZ's May Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) forecast.
- Risks are tilted to the downside.
- Abstracting from seasonal and transitory influences on the inflation process, we expect annual readings from the core inflation measures produced by Statistics NZ to oscillate around 2%, with annual inflation from the RBNZ sectoral factor model stuck below 2%.
- downside risks to the inflation outlook have continued to grow, with the NZ economy looking increasingly unlikely to be able to comfortably meet the RBNZ's inflation and labour market objectives.
Further from ASB on the RBNZ:
- We believe the RBNZ will cut the OCR by a further 50bps over 2019 (August and November).
