At 2245GMT tomorrow we'll get the New Zealand economic growth data for the second quarter of 2019.
We just got the BoP, basically as expected:
What to expect for tomorrow via:
ASB are at 0.5% q/q:
- which should see annual growth slow to 2.1% from 2.5%.
- NZ economic growth has remained sub-trend over H1 2019 and ongoing weakness in business confidence suggests growth is likely to remain weak over H2 2019 as well.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also expects quarterly growth of 0.5%, with annual growth slowing to 2%.
Westpac are at 0.6% q/q:
- Growth is clearly down from its 2016-17 peaks, but our estimates don't suggest that there was a further deterioration in the first half of this year
- Service sector activity looks to have picked up after a particularly soft patch in the March quarter. In contrast, we expect construction, mining and manufacturing to pull back after sharp gains in March
- Our forecast is slightly higher than the Reserve Bank's 0.5% estimate and is at the upper end of the range of market forecasts. A result in line with our forecast is unlikely to shift the dial on expectations of further OCR cuts, as growth and inflation are expected to remain subdued over the rest of this year
