The most recent polling I have seen indicates the likely outcome is a return of the incumbent ruling party in coalition with the Greens.
- 61 seats is the required number for victory in the 120 seat parliament.
The most recent polling shows:
- Current Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party will get 59
- The main opposition National Party on 40 seats
- ACT Party 10
- Green Party 11
Polling for preferred PM:
- Incumbent Jacinda Ardern 55%
- National Party's Judith Collins. 20%
The biggest risk for NZ financial markets is an unclear result, that it takes days (or weeks) to get a final decision. On the other hand, if Ardern clearly wins outright on Saturday the 'stability' factor should be supportive for the NZD on Monday.
