Comments from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Reserve Bank of New Zealand 'Shadow Board'.
before I get to the remarks on the monetary policy meeting coing up on May 8, please be aware:
- NZIER's Monetary Policy Shadow Board is independent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealan
- Participants show where they think interest rates should be, not what they believe will happen.
OK? This is not a forecast from NZIER but a recommendation to the seven member RBNZ board.
OK, with that out of the way, NZIER (in brief0:
Christina Leung, Principal Economist at NZIER:
- "Recent data have been mixed, with inflation and employment figures softer than expected. The key change has been the surprise introduction of an easing bias by the Reserve Bank at its OCR Review in March. The central bank's indication that it sees the next move in the OCR being more likely to be a cut was a shift from its previous neutral stance.
- Nonetheless, the majority of NZIER Shadow Board believes it is appropriate to leave the OCR on hold at the upcoming announcement.
- The exception is Kiwibank, which recommended the OCR be cut. This shift in view drove much of the increase in easing bias for the Shadow Board."
Here is the link to full piece if interested.
