NZDJPY
The NZDJPY is worth looking at for three reasons.
One: the fundamentals favour NZDJPY upside.
In a very simple playbook the RBNZ are managing high inflation and good employment. The RBNZ have the highest cash rate among major central banks and look set to increase rates further. ANZ are forecasting the RBNZ to raise interest rates to 2.0% neutral rate by the end of 2022. Westpac revise their RBNZ forecast higher seeing it peak at 3.0% on 2023 vs their previous forecast of it peaking at 2.0%.The BoJ is not expected to raise interest rates any time soon. In fact some folks think the JPY carry trade may be back. All of this favours NZDJPY upside fundamentally.
Two: technically sound
This 80.20 region on the daily NZD chart looks pretty sold as a decent swing low point around core support on the daily chart. Stops can be placed just below 79.00 and be technically out of the way.
Three: seasonally solid
The seasonals are very solid for the NZDJPY pair. Check them out below. You can see that there is a solid seasonal bias for gains. Over the last 10 years the NZDJPY pair has risen nine times out of ten.
The largest gain was in 2016 with a near 5% rise. The expectations heading into the RBNZ meeting is that the RBNZ will continue on their rate hiking path. This should keep the NZDJPY pair supported ahead of November 24. Seasonals are provided by Seasonax and you can find more details here.
