Latest OECD GDP forecasts just out 28 Nov
Sees 2017 U.S. Growth Of 2.2% (+0.1), 2.5% In 2018 (+0.1)
2017 Euro Area Growth Of 2.4% (+0.3), 2.1% In 2018 (+0.2)
2017 UK Growth Of 1.5% (-0.1), 1.2% In 2018 (+0.2)
2017 Japanese Growth Of 1.5% (-0.1), 1.2% In 2018 (Unchanged)
2017 Chinese Growth Of 6.8% (Unchanged), 6.6% In 2018 (Unchanged)
- global growth is strengthening but longer-term challenges remain
- policy stimulus is supporting upturn but pvt investment recovery is modest
- inflation and wage growth remain subdued
- corp indebtedness is high and rising, creating vulnerabilities
- high debt makes households in many countries vulnerable to shocks
OECD chief economist Catherine Mann concludes:
Policy fatigue and sluggish growth in the past decade have curbed reform ambitions. And some might suggest that the global upturn means that no more policy effort is needed. In fact, the rapid pace of technological change - digitalisation, robotics, artificial intelligence, cloud computing - demands deeper and more extensive reforms, not complacency.
Attention to the local challenges of global and technological changes has to ensure that opportunities will be shared. Those countries that step up policy efforts will create a better environment for their firms and public. With the global upturn putting wind under the wings of policy, now is the time to redouble the effort.
Understandable caution is rightly shown.
Full report here
