On Wednesday 1 September 2021 at 0130 GMT Australian Q2 2021 economic growth data is due for release
- expected 0.5% q/q, prior 1.8%
- expected 9.2% y/y (this si due to a huge base effect re the catastrophic Q2 2020), prior 1.1%
I posted a preview earlier:
While on the subject of previews, the Reserve Bank of Australia meet next week and I've a couple of very early previews here if you are interested:
- RBA monetary policy meeting next week - sneak peek preview
- CBA expect a reversal of the taper decision
A couple of very quick preview comments on today's data from CBA:
- For most of the June quarter the Australian economy was travelling well, but then the Delta variant arrived
- For all intents and purposes, the Australian economy is currently in a manufactured recession as we go through another huge negative shock
And NAB:
- While a flat to negative Q2 GDP print is a real risk, this is far in the rear vision mirror as far as the economy is concerned given the sharp contraction expected in Q3 which we have pencilled in at around -3% q/q
NAB's comment about Q2 being in the 'rear view mirror' is the thing about GDP data, its always a blast from the past. What today's data will show, though, is how well the economy was travelling heading into the Q3 weakness. What we have seen in the partials though, while indicating the potential for negative growth, domestic demand was robust. The rise in imports reflecting this> Bolstered though by government stimulus with strong rises for both government investment and consumption spending.
Australian PM Morrison will be hoping the data today does not confirm a double-dip recession on his watch:
