US nonfarm payroll data for December 2018 is due at 1330 GMT today, 4 January 2019

Earlier:

This now via TD:

  • We expect 190k
  • unemployment rate 3.7%
  • wages will rise 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y

TD citing:

  • payrolls to rebound ... following a larger-than-expected slide to 155k for November
  • Regional surveys and the manufacturing ISM for December... suggest employment likely remained firm in the manufacturing sector
  • scope for an upside surprise from employment in the services sector
  • construction sector … was notably weak in November … the December ADP report suggests a strong rebound

Implications for FX:

  • Very high hurdle - even on a positive surprise - to override what is a wave of negativity and uncertainty permeating through markets. This leaves an asymmetric bias for FX, with $JPY a fade on rallies (towards 108.70) and likely to remain heavy in the coming weeks as equity repatriation gathers momentum. CAD may also be a beneficiary as long as employment data sits on the positive