What the CPI releases tell us

What the CPI releases tell us

The CPI release for the German regions are all in now, with the North Rhine Westphalia print completing the set out 10 minutes ago:

  • Brandenburg -0.1% vs -0.2%mm expected
  • 1.3%y/y vs 1.4% prior
  • Hesse 0.0% m/m vs -0.1% prior
  • 1.2% y/y vs 1.3% prior
  • Bavaria m/m 0.0% vs -0.1%
  • 1.1% y/y vs 1.4% prior
  • North Rhine Westphalia -0.1 vs 0.0%m/m prior
  • y/y 1.3% vs 1.5% prior

    • The pattern is for a m/m slight beat and a y/y miss. The main release for the region is at 1300BST and it will likely reflect the regional readings here - beating the m/m, but missing y/y.

    EURUSD is at 1.0937 and holding above the 1.0900 handle. The slowing inflation is not a surprise and this just places more expectations on the need/ request from fiscal stimulus from the ECB. In terms of trading, I don't see anything for buyers or sellers to really get too excited about here.