According to the latest Bloomberg survey on economists (6 to 13 July)

  • Previous forecast was for the SNB to move in Q3 2019
  • Swiss economy expected to expand 2.2% in 2018
  • Previous forecast was for the economy to expand by 2.1%

Well, whatever that affects the ECB also has an indirect impact on the SNB. With the ECB deciding on its "through the summer" of 2019 rhetoric, it has indirectly caused market participants to believe the SNB will only move in the next quarter instead.

Whatever the situation is, expect the SNB to maintain its language right up until we get confirmation by the ECB itself that rate increases will come. The baseline scenario remains that the Swiss central bank will always be a step behind.

Meanwhile, the bump up in the growth forecast for the Swiss economy continues to reflect the positive recent economic data that we are seeing.